Capabilities & futures · Concept
AGI timelines
Catalogued:
What it means
Forecasts about when systems might reach a specified level of broad cognitive capability. The date is meaningful only alongside a definition, evaluation method and uncertainty range. A forecast of benchmark performance is not automatically a forecast of cheap, reliable replacement of an occupation.
The strongest case
Explicit forecasts can make assumptions inspectable and improve planning. Different plausible timelines may justify preparing for several scenarios rather than waiting for certainty.
The difficult part
Definitions shift, evaluation can reward narrow competence, and deployment depends on cost, infrastructure and reliability. A confident date with no resolution criteria is difficult to falsify. Disagreement may concern the meaning of AGI more than the calendar.
Sources & further reading
Sources support the factual context. The jokes are our responsibility.